By S. T. K. Ukaga
After listening closely to the news and factual reports emanating from all around. I can state with a certain degree of accuracy, that war or no war, we are in for a very very rough time in the near future. The whole war with Niger scenario is in my opinion a mere distraction. As it doesn’t negate nor mitigate anything from what we are currently experiencing economically. Rather it would further aggravate our current economic reality. The economic and humanitarian crisis it will present in the near term, should be what concerns us most as Nigerians.
From the recently released CBN audit report, we are in a situation where a large percentage of our dollar reserves have been borrowed against by the previous government (which maybe why Emefiele is still being detained) and now held in lien by foreign banks and creditors. This really is more important than whatever else is going on around us. So whether we are part of the planned ECOWAS invasion or not. How do we withstand the consequences of these debts being paid off, when it would have almost emptied our dollar reserves? How can we as a nation fulfill the dollar demands for basic imports of food, goods and machinery? We all will eventually be forced to rely heavily on the parallel market. Which is primarily regulated by the arbitrary forces of supply and demand. If that’s the case, where will the supply come from? Dollar I predict will continue to rise, given the above scenario.
One of our other major forex contributor outside of oil is the diaspora remittances. But these remittances will also reduce in volume as the value of the naira further depreciates. Especially since the present security situation doesn’t encourage more urgently needed foreign direct investment (FDI) or inflows from the diaspora to either invest more in the country or come home more often for holidays.
Our oil production which accounts for a very large portion of our total reserves and dollar income is struggling and not able to meet our OPEC target of 2 million barrels per day. We are somewhere around the 1.2 million barrels per day range. And even at that it is difficult to determine how much of this oil revenue is going into the pockets of the state and non-state oil cabals and their oil coy collaborators. As our current oil production figures are not accurate and transparent so they are not reliable.
So, my advise is for this present government to focus more on our grave economic concerns to avoid further damage to our economy and possible meltdown. Let our military be rather deployed to protect our largest forex earner, the oil industry. By protecting the oil pipelines, production facilities and water ways. Installing the proper equipment to monitor all oil production and distribution facilities. To also ensure the safety of our citizens in all the states. Thus significantly reducing the present state of insecurity and its impact on our agricultural economy. This can be partly achieved and improved by actively engaging with the local communities in a more professional and collaborative manner. Instead of the combative approach being employed in some areas.
One of the primary roles of government and possibly its most important, is to protect the lives and wellbeing of its citizens and protect the territorial integrity of our land.
There's a need for our government and security agencies to do away with the perceived selective, restrictive and oppressive mindset perpetuated during the term of the last few governments. And take a more balanced, pragmatic, all inclusive and holistic approach towards tackling our myriad problems and the ongoing fight against terrorism, kidnappers, armed groups etc…
Now my last advice is for us all citizens of Nigeria. We must realize that we have no other country than Nigeria and that the present situation is beyond politics, religion or tribe. It requires us all to think about what we can do for individually or collectively for ourselves, our communities and nation, to survive the looming challenges and difficulties of the coming months.
Those who are close to our leaders and are able to proffer suggestions and ideas on what immediate well thought out and realistic options are available in terms of economic policies, practical solutions and viable interventions that can reflate our economy and increase our reserves. Finally, we must all save and prepare for the rainy days are already here. And bound to get stormier in the coming weeks and months.
*Ukaga wrote from Owerri
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